Fibrosis-5 predicts end-stage renal disease in patients with microscopic polyangiitis and granulomatosis with polyangiitis without substantial liver diseases

We previously reported that fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) was associated with poor outcomes of microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and granuloma with polyangiitis (GPA). We also investigated the potential of FIB-5, a novel index, in predicting all-cause mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) during follow-up in patients with MPA and GPA without substantial liver diseases. Clinical and laboratory data at diagnosis were collected by reviewing the medical records of 180 patients with MPA and GPA. FIB-5 was obtained by a following equation: FIB-5 = (serum albumin (g/L) × 0.3 + platelet count (10(9)/L) × 0.05) − (alkaline phosphatase (IU/L) × 0.014 + aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio × 6 + 14). The median age of the patients at diagnosis was 61.0 years. FIB-5 at diagnosis could not reflect the cross-sectional vasculitis activity. The cutoffs of FIB-5 for poor outcomes was set as 0.82 (the lowest tertile) and -0.42 (the lowest quartile) at diagnosis. In Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, patients with FIB-5 < 0.82 and those with FIB-5 < -0.42 exhibited lower ESRD-free survival rates than those without. However, it could not predict all-cause mortality. In multivariable Cox hazards analysis, both FFS (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.554) and FIB-5 < 0.82 (HR 2.096) as well as both FFS (HR 1.534) and FIB-5 < -0.42 (HR 2.073) at diagnosis independently predicted ESRD during follow-up. In conclusion, FIB-5 < 0.82 and FIB-5 < -0.42 at diagnosis could predict the occurrence of ESRD, but not all-cause mortality, during follow-up in patients with MPA and GPA without substantial liver diseases. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10238-021-00691-2.