Establishment of a Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the 6-Month Mortality Rate of Patients with Advanced Biliary Tract Cancers Undergoing Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The development of a simple tool that uses pretreatment clinical factors to predict the 6-month mortality rate of patients with advanced biliary tract cancer is critical in order to assist physicians in evaluating treatment options and outcomes. We established a nomogram including four independent pretreatment factors—gender, monocyte to lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase, and liver metastasis—based on data from 202 patients undergoing gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. The performance of this nomogram for 6-month mortality-risk prediction was promising and feasible, providing clinicians and patients with additional information for evaluating therapeutic options. ABSTRACT: Background: The estimation of mortality risk among patients diagnosed with advanced cancer provides important information for clinicians and patients in clinical practice. Currently, gemcitabine-based chemotherapy regimens are the standard treatment for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the 6-month mortality rate among patients with advanced BTC to help physicians evaluate treatment options and outcomes. Patients: We conducted a retrospective analysis to evaluate the 6-month mortality rate among patients with advanced BTC who underwent gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from 2012 to 2018. Data regarding pretreatment factors and the clinical response to treatment were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent factors for nomogram creation. Results: A total of 202 advanced BTC patients who were treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy were included in this analysis. No difference in survival was identified between patients undergoing gemcitabine monotherapy and those treated with gemcitabine combined with other cytotoxic agents. The univariate analysis revealed 10 significant factors, while the multivariate analysis identified four independent factors, including gender, monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and liver metastasis, which were used to establish the nomogram. The performance of this nomogram for the prediction of 6-month mortality risk was found to be promising and feasible based on logistic regression. Conclusion: A nomogram based on four independent pretreatment factors, including gender, MLR, ALP, and liver metastasis, was established to predict the 6-month mortality risk in patients with advanced BTC; it can provide clinicians and patients with additional information when evaluating treatment outcomes.