Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R(RI)) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval dis...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ito, Kimihito, Piantham, Chayada, Nishiura, Hiroshi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2021
Materias:
Rapid Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8268651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34240695
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570
Descripción
Sumario:Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R(RI)) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, R(RI) varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.

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