Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China ov...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lin, Yatang, Peng, Fangyuan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8270456/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34242278
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253901
_version_ 1783720806079004672
author Lin, Yatang
Peng, Fangyuan
author_facet Lin, Yatang
Peng, Fangyuan
author_sort Lin, Yatang
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8270456
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-82704562021-07-21 Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run Lin, Yatang Peng, Fangyuan PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control. Public Library of Science 2021-07-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8270456/ /pubmed/34242278 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253901 Text en © 2021 Lin, Peng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Lin, Yatang
Peng, Fangyuan
Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title_full Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title_fullStr Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title_full_unstemmed Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title_short Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run
title_sort control strategies against covid-19 in china: significance of effective testing in the long run
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8270456/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34242278
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253901
work_keys_str_mv AT linyatang controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun
AT pengfangyuan controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun

Ejemplares similares