Analysis of Combined Indicators for Risk of Osteoporotic Hip Fracture in Elderly Women

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of combined independent risk factors in assessing the risk of hip fractures in elderly women. METHODS: Ninety elderly females who sustained hip fractures (including femoral neck fractures and intertrochanteric fractures) and 110 female outpatients without a hip fracture were included in our cross‐sectional study from 24 November 2017 to 20 May 2019. The age of subjects in the present study was ≥65 years, with the mean age of 78.73 ± 7.77 and 78.09 ± 5.03 years for women with and without elderly hip fractures, respectively. Bone mineral density (BMD), Beta‐carboxy terminal telopeptide (β‐CTX), N‐terminal/mid region (N‐MID), and 25(OH)D levels were analyzed. A novel evaluation model was established to evaluate combined indicators in assessing hip fractures in elderly women. RESULTS: Compared with the control group, taller height (155.68 ± 6.40 vs 150.97 ± 6.23, P < 0.01), higher levels of β‐CTX (525.91 ± 307.38 vs 330.94 ± 289.71, P < 0.01), and lower levels of total hip BMD (0.662 ± 0.117 vs 0.699 ± 0.111, P = 0.022), femoral neck BMD (0.598 ± 0.106 vs 0.637 ± 0.100, P = 0.009), and 25(OH)D (15.67 ± 7.23 vs 29.53 ± 10.57, P < 0.01) were found in the facture group. After adjustment for confounding factors, logistic regression analysis revealed that 25(OH)D (adjusted OR 0.837 [95% CI 0.790–0.886]; P < 0.01), femoral neck BMD (adjusted OR 0.009 [95% CI 0.000–0.969]; P = 0.048) and height (adjusted OR 1.207 [95% CI 1.116–1.306]; P < 0.01) remained risk factors for hip fractures in elderly women. Then a model including independent risk factors was established. A DeLong test showed the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) (Area under the curve [AUC]) of 25(OH)D was significantly greater than that for femoral neck BMD (P < 0.01) and height (P < 0.01). The AUC of model including 25(OH)D and height was significantly greater than that of other combinations (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: 25(OH)D, femoral neck BMD and height were associated with the occurrence of hip fractures in elderly women even after adjustment for confounding factors, and a model including 25(OH)D and height could provide better associated power than other combinations in the assessment of elderly hip fractures.