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Tipping point realized in cod fishery
Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with cat...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8275682/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34253825 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z |
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author | Möllmann, Christian Cormon, Xochitl Funk, Steffen Otto, Saskia A. Schmidt, Jörn O. Schwermer, Heike Sguotti, Camilla Voss, Rudi Quaas, Martin |
author_facet | Möllmann, Christian Cormon, Xochitl Funk, Steffen Otto, Saskia A. Schmidt, Jörn O. Schwermer, Heike Sguotti, Camilla Voss, Rudi Quaas, Martin |
author_sort | Möllmann, Christian |
collection | PubMed |
description | Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8275682 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82756822021-07-13 Tipping point realized in cod fishery Möllmann, Christian Cormon, Xochitl Funk, Steffen Otto, Saskia A. Schmidt, Jörn O. Schwermer, Heike Sguotti, Camilla Voss, Rudi Quaas, Martin Sci Rep Article Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-07-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8275682/ /pubmed/34253825 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Möllmann, Christian Cormon, Xochitl Funk, Steffen Otto, Saskia A. Schmidt, Jörn O. Schwermer, Heike Sguotti, Camilla Voss, Rudi Quaas, Martin Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title | Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title_full | Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title_fullStr | Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title_full_unstemmed | Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title_short | Tipping point realized in cod fishery |
title_sort | tipping point realized in cod fishery |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8275682/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34253825 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z |
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