Cargando…
Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study
OBJECTIVE: Diets closer aligned with nutritional guidelines could lower the risk of several chronic conditions and improve economic outcomes, such as employment and healthcare costs. However, little is known about the range, order of magnitude and timing of these potential effects. DESIGN: We used a...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8275689/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S136898002100015X |
_version_ | 1783721768262828032 |
---|---|
author | Herman, Patricia M Nguyen, PhuongGiang Sturm, Roland |
author_facet | Herman, Patricia M Nguyen, PhuongGiang Sturm, Roland |
author_sort | Herman, Patricia M |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: Diets closer aligned with nutritional guidelines could lower the risk of several chronic conditions and improve economic outcomes, such as employment and healthcare costs. However, little is known about the range, order of magnitude and timing of these potential effects. DESIGN: We used a microsimulation approach to predict US population changes over 30 years in health and economic outcomes that could result from a substantial (but not impossible) improvement in diet quality – an improvement from the third to the fifth quintile of US scores on the Alternate Healthy Eating Index, 2010 version. SETTING: Risk ratios from the literature for diabetes, heart disease and stroke were used to modify the Future Adult Model (FAM) to simulate outcomes from a higher-quality diet. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using bootstrap and sensitivity analysis examined the variation in published risk ratios. PARTICIPANTS: FAM simulates outcomes for the US adult population aged 25 and older. RESULTS: Improved diet quality initially leads to very small changes in chronic disease prevalence, but these accumulate over time. If diets improved beginning in 2019, after 30 years diabetes prevalence could be reduced by 5·9 million cases (11·5 %), heart disease prevalence by 4·0 million cases (7·2 %) and stroke prevalence by 1·9 million cases (10·3 %). These reductions in disease prevalence would be accompanied that same year by fewer deaths (88 000) and healthcare cost savings of $144·0 billion (2019 USD). CONCLUSIONS: This microsimulation study suggests that improvements in diet are likely to improve health and economic population outcomes over time. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8275689 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82756892022-07-13 Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study Herman, Patricia M Nguyen, PhuongGiang Sturm, Roland Public Health Nutr Research Paper OBJECTIVE: Diets closer aligned with nutritional guidelines could lower the risk of several chronic conditions and improve economic outcomes, such as employment and healthcare costs. However, little is known about the range, order of magnitude and timing of these potential effects. DESIGN: We used a microsimulation approach to predict US population changes over 30 years in health and economic outcomes that could result from a substantial (but not impossible) improvement in diet quality – an improvement from the third to the fifth quintile of US scores on the Alternate Healthy Eating Index, 2010 version. SETTING: Risk ratios from the literature for diabetes, heart disease and stroke were used to modify the Future Adult Model (FAM) to simulate outcomes from a higher-quality diet. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using bootstrap and sensitivity analysis examined the variation in published risk ratios. PARTICIPANTS: FAM simulates outcomes for the US adult population aged 25 and older. RESULTS: Improved diet quality initially leads to very small changes in chronic disease prevalence, but these accumulate over time. If diets improved beginning in 2019, after 30 years diabetes prevalence could be reduced by 5·9 million cases (11·5 %), heart disease prevalence by 4·0 million cases (7·2 %) and stroke prevalence by 1·9 million cases (10·3 %). These reductions in disease prevalence would be accompanied that same year by fewer deaths (88 000) and healthcare cost savings of $144·0 billion (2019 USD). CONCLUSIONS: This microsimulation study suggests that improvements in diet are likely to improve health and economic population outcomes over time. Cambridge University Press 2022-05 2021-01-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8275689/ /pubmed/33436121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S136898002100015X Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work. |
spellingShingle | Research Paper Herman, Patricia M Nguyen, PhuongGiang Sturm, Roland Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title | Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title_full | Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title_fullStr | Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title_full_unstemmed | Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title_short | Diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
title_sort | diet quality improvement and 30-year population health and economic outcomes: a microsimulation study |
topic | Research Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8275689/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S136898002100015X |
work_keys_str_mv | AT hermanpatriciam dietqualityimprovementand30yearpopulationhealthandeconomicoutcomesamicrosimulationstudy AT nguyenphuonggiang dietqualityimprovementand30yearpopulationhealthandeconomicoutcomesamicrosimulationstudy AT sturmroland dietqualityimprovementand30yearpopulationhealthandeconomicoutcomesamicrosimulationstudy |