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Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection

Uncertainty is a crucial issue for any risk assessment. Consequently, it also poses crucial challenges for risk communications. Many guidebooks advise reporting uncertainties in risk assessments, expecting that the audience will appreciate this disclosure. However, the empirical evidence about the e...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wiedemann, Peter, Boerner, Franziska U., Freudenstein, Frederik
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277037/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34255777
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253762
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author Wiedemann, Peter
Boerner, Franziska U.
Freudenstein, Frederik
author_facet Wiedemann, Peter
Boerner, Franziska U.
Freudenstein, Frederik
author_sort Wiedemann, Peter
collection PubMed
description Uncertainty is a crucial issue for any risk assessment. Consequently, it also poses crucial challenges for risk communications. Many guidebooks advise reporting uncertainties in risk assessments, expecting that the audience will appreciate this disclosure. However, the empirical evidence about the effects of uncertainty reporting is sparse and inconclusive. Therefore, based on examples of potential health risks of electromagnetic fields (EMF), three experiments were conducted analysing the effects of communicating uncertainties separately for hazard identification, risk characterisation and risk protection. The setups aimed to explore how reporting and how explaining of uncertainty affects dependent variables such as risk perception, perceived competence of the risk assessors, and trust in risk management. Each of the three experiments used a 2x2 design with a first factor presenting uncertainty descriptions (as used in public controversies on EMF related health effects) or describing a certainty conditions; and a second factor explaining the causes of uncertainties (by pointing at knowledge gaps) or not explaining them. The study results indicate that qualitative uncertainty descriptions regarding hazard identification reduce the confidence in the professional competencies of the assessors. In contrast, a quantitative uncertainty description in risk characterisation–regarding the magnitude of the risk–does not affect any of the dependent variables. Concerning risk protection, trust in exposure limit values is not affected by qualitative uncertainty information. However, the qualitative description of uncertainty regarding the adequacy of protection amplifies fears. Furthermore, explaining this uncertainty results in lower text understandability.
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spelling pubmed-82770372021-07-20 Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection Wiedemann, Peter Boerner, Franziska U. Freudenstein, Frederik PLoS One Research Article Uncertainty is a crucial issue for any risk assessment. Consequently, it also poses crucial challenges for risk communications. Many guidebooks advise reporting uncertainties in risk assessments, expecting that the audience will appreciate this disclosure. However, the empirical evidence about the effects of uncertainty reporting is sparse and inconclusive. Therefore, based on examples of potential health risks of electromagnetic fields (EMF), three experiments were conducted analysing the effects of communicating uncertainties separately for hazard identification, risk characterisation and risk protection. The setups aimed to explore how reporting and how explaining of uncertainty affects dependent variables such as risk perception, perceived competence of the risk assessors, and trust in risk management. Each of the three experiments used a 2x2 design with a first factor presenting uncertainty descriptions (as used in public controversies on EMF related health effects) or describing a certainty conditions; and a second factor explaining the causes of uncertainties (by pointing at knowledge gaps) or not explaining them. The study results indicate that qualitative uncertainty descriptions regarding hazard identification reduce the confidence in the professional competencies of the assessors. In contrast, a quantitative uncertainty description in risk characterisation–regarding the magnitude of the risk–does not affect any of the dependent variables. Concerning risk protection, trust in exposure limit values is not affected by qualitative uncertainty information. However, the qualitative description of uncertainty regarding the adequacy of protection amplifies fears. Furthermore, explaining this uncertainty results in lower text understandability. Public Library of Science 2021-07-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8277037/ /pubmed/34255777 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253762 Text en © 2021 Wiedemann et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Wiedemann, Peter
Boerner, Franziska U.
Freudenstein, Frederik
Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title_full Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title_fullStr Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title_full_unstemmed Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title_short Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
title_sort effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277037/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34255777
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253762
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