One-year change in plasma volume and mortality in the Japanese general population: An observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: Changes in plasma volume, a marker of plasma volume expansion and contraction, are gaining attention in the field of cardiovascular disease because of its role in the prevention and management of heart failure. However, it remains unknown whether a 1-year change in plasma volume is a risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a nationwide database of 134,291 subjects (age 40–75 years) who participated in the annual “Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan” check-up for 2 consecutive years between 2008 and 2011. A 1-year change in plasm volume was calculated using the Strauss–Davis-Rosenbaum formula. There were 220 cardiovascular deaths, 1,001 non-cardiovascular deaths including 718 cancer deaths, and 1,221 all-cause deaths during the follow-up period of 3.9 years. All subjects were divided into quintiles based on the 1-year change in plasma volume. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that the highest 5(th) quintile had the greatest risk among the five groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that a 1-year change in plasma volume was an independent risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and cancer deaths. The addition of a 1-year change in plasma volume to cardiovascular risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic, net reclassification, and integrated discrimination indexes. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we have demonstrated for the first time that a 1-year change in plasma volume could be an additional risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular (mainly cancer) mortality in the general population.