Enhancing Obstructive Sleep Apnea Diagnosis With Screening Through Disease Phenotypes: Algorithm Development and Validation

BACKGROUND: The American Academy of Sleep Medicine guidelines suggest that clinical prediction algorithms can be used in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) without replacing polysomnography, which is the gold standard. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a clinical decision support system for OSA diagnosis according to its standard definition (apnea-hypopnea index plus symptoms), identifying individuals with high pretest probability based on risk and diagnostic factors. METHODS: A total of 47 predictive variables were extracted from a cohort of patients who underwent polysomnography. A total of 14 variables that were univariately significant were then used to compute the distance between patients with OSA, defining a hierarchical clustering structure from which patient phenotypes were derived and described. Affinity from individuals at risk of OSA phenotypes was later computed, and cluster membership was used as an additional predictor in a Bayesian network classifier (model B). RESULTS: A total of 318 patients at risk were included, of whom 207 (65.1%) individuals were diagnosed with OSA (111, 53.6% with mild; 50, 24.2% with moderate; and 46, 22.2% with severe). On the basis of predictive variables, 3 phenotypes were defined (74/207, 35.7% low; 104/207, 50.2% medium; and 29/207, 14.1% high), with an increasing prevalence of symptoms and comorbidities, the latter describing older and obese patients, and a substantial increase in some comorbidities, suggesting their beneficial use as combined predictors (median apnea-hypopnea indices of 10, 14, and 31, respectively). Cross-validation results demonstrated that the inclusion of OSA phenotypes as an adjusting predictor in a Bayesian classifier improved screening specificity (26%, 95% CI 24-29, to 38%, 95% CI 35-40) while maintaining a high sensitivity (93%, 95% CI 91-95), with model B doubling the diagnostic model effectiveness (diagnostic odds ratio of 8.14). CONCLUSIONS: Defined OSA phenotypes are a sensitive tool that enhances our understanding of the disease and allows the derivation of a predictive algorithm that can clearly outperform symptom-based guideline recommendations as a rule-out approach for screening.