Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between sustainable development goals

A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y.