A Nomogram Based on Preoperative Inflammatory Indices and ICG-R15 for Prediction of Liver Failure After Hepatectomy in HCC Patients

OBJECTIVE: To establish a nomogram based on inflammatory indices and ICG-R15 for predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) among patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 407 patients with HCC hospitalized at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University between January 2015 and December 2020, and 81 patients with HCC hospitalized at the Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University between January 2019 and January 2020 were included in the study. Totally 488 HCC patients were divided into the training cohort (n=378) and the validation cohort (n=110) by random sampling. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors. Through combining these independent risk factors, a nomogram was established for the prediction of PHLF. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated and compared with traditional models, like CP score (Child-Pugh), MELD score (Model of End-Stage Liver Disease), and ALBI score (albumin-bilirubin) by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Cirrhosis (OR=2.203, 95%CI:1.070-3.824, P=0.030), prothrombin time (PT) (OR=1.886, 95%CI: 1.107-3.211, P=0.020), tumor size (OR=1.107, 95%CI: 1.022-1.200, P=0.013), ICG-R15% (OR=1.141, 95%CI: 1.070-1.216, P<0.001), blood loss (OR=2.415, 95%CI: 1.306-4.468, P=0.005) and AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) (OR=4.652, 95%CI: 1.432-15.112, P=0.011) were independent risk factors of PHLF. Nomogram was built with well-fitted calibration curves on the of these 6 factors. Comparing with CP score (C-index=0.582, 95%CI, 0.523-0.640), ALBI score (C-index=0.670, 95%CI, 0.615-0.725) and MELD score (C-ibasedndex=0.661, 95%CI, 0.606-0.716), the nomogram showed a better predictive value, with a C-index of 0.845 (95%CI, 0.806-0.884). The results were consistent in the validation cohort. DCA confirmed the conclusion as well. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram was established to predict PHLF in HCC patients. The nomogram showed a strong predictive efficiency and would be a convenient tool for us to facilitate clinical decisions.