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Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to e...

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Autores principales: Stoddard, Madison, Sarkar, Sharanya, Yuan, Lin, Nolan, Ryan P., White, Douglas E., White, Laura F., Hochberg, Natasha S., Chakravarty, Arijit
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8284637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34270597
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254734
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author Stoddard, Madison
Sarkar, Sharanya
Yuan, Lin
Nolan, Ryan P.
White, Douglas E.
White, Laura F.
Hochberg, Natasha S.
Chakravarty, Arijit
author_facet Stoddard, Madison
Sarkar, Sharanya
Yuan, Lin
Nolan, Ryan P.
White, Douglas E.
White, Laura F.
Hochberg, Natasha S.
Chakravarty, Arijit
author_sort Stoddard, Madison
collection PubMed
description As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to establish the link between vaccine characteristics and effectiveness in bringing an end to this unprecedented public health crisis. Our findings suggest that a return to pre-pandemic social and economic conditions without fully suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will lead to extensive viral spread, resulting in a high disease burden even in the presence of vaccines that reduce risk of infection and mortality. Our modeling points to the feasibility of complete SARS-CoV-2 suppression with high population-level compliance and vaccines that are highly effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, vaccine-mediated reduction of transmission is critical for viral suppression, and in order for partially-effective vaccines to play a positive role in SARS-CoV-2 suppression, complementary biomedical interventions and public health measures must be deployed simultaneously.
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spelling pubmed-82846372021-07-28 Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2 Stoddard, Madison Sarkar, Sharanya Yuan, Lin Nolan, Ryan P. White, Douglas E. White, Laura F. Hochberg, Natasha S. Chakravarty, Arijit PLoS One Research Article As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to establish the link between vaccine characteristics and effectiveness in bringing an end to this unprecedented public health crisis. Our findings suggest that a return to pre-pandemic social and economic conditions without fully suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will lead to extensive viral spread, resulting in a high disease burden even in the presence of vaccines that reduce risk of infection and mortality. Our modeling points to the feasibility of complete SARS-CoV-2 suppression with high population-level compliance and vaccines that are highly effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, vaccine-mediated reduction of transmission is critical for viral suppression, and in order for partially-effective vaccines to play a positive role in SARS-CoV-2 suppression, complementary biomedical interventions and public health measures must be deployed simultaneously. Public Library of Science 2021-07-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8284637/ /pubmed/34270597 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254734 Text en © 2021 Stoddard et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Stoddard, Madison
Sarkar, Sharanya
Yuan, Lin
Nolan, Ryan P.
White, Douglas E.
White, Laura F.
Hochberg, Natasha S.
Chakravarty, Arijit
Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title_full Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title_fullStr Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title_full_unstemmed Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title_short Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2
title_sort beyond the new normal: assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of sars-cov-2
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8284637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34270597
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254734
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