Selection of CT variables and prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injuries (TBI) are associated with high risk of morbidity and mortality. Early outcome prediction in patients with TBI require reliable data input and stable prognostic models. The aim of this investigation was to analyze different CT classification systems and prognostic calculators in a representative population of TBI-patients, with known outcomes, in a neurointensive care unit (NICU), to identify the most suitable CT scoring system for continued research. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively included 158 consecutive patients with TBI admitted to the NICU at a level 1 trauma center in Sweden from 2012 to 2016. Baseline data on admission was recorded, CT scans were reviewed, and patient outcome one year after trauma was assessed according to Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). The Marshall classification, Rotterdam scoring system, Helsinki CT score and Stockholm CT score were tested, in addition to the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic calculators. The results were then compared with the actual outcomes. RESULTS: Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission was 3–8 in 38%, 9–13 in 27.2%, and 14–15 in 34.8% of the patients. GOS after one year showed good recovery in 15.8%, moderate disability in 27.2%, severe disability in 24.7%, vegetative state in 1.3% and death in 29.7%. When adding the variables from the IMPACT base model to the CT scoring systems, the Stockholm CT score yielded the strongest relationship to actual outcome. The results from the prognostic calculators IMPACT and CRASH were divided into two subgroups of mortality (percentages); ≤50% (favorable outcome) and > 50% (unfavorable outcome). This yielded favorable IMPACT and CRASH scores in 54.4 and 38.0% respectively. CONCLUSION: The Stockholm CT score and the Helsinki score yielded the closest relationship between the models and the actual outcomes in this consecutive patient series, representative of a NICU TBI-population. Furthermore, the Stockholm CT score yielded the strongest overall relationship when adding variables from the IMPACT base model and would be our method of choice for continued research when using any of the current available CT score models. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13049-021-00901-6.