Infer HIV transmission dynamics from gene sequences among young men who have sex with men in China

To investigate the transmission dynamics and temporal and spatial migration characteristics of HIV spread among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China, a total of 1012 HIV-1 partial pol sequences, including five subtypes, were studied. Bayesian analysis were applied for each subtype to infer its dynamic characters including the effective reproductive number (R(e)) and migration process. The mean curve of each R(e) was almost always greater than 1 (even the 95% highest posterior density (HPD) lower value) along with time, which supports the necessity for a comprehensive study about risk behaviors among young MSM group in China. We also should reappraise the free treatment strategy, especially the therapeutic effect during the free treatment policy.