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Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World

We develop a mathematical model of the coronavirus propagation in different countries (Brazil, India, US, Japan, Israel, Spain, Sweden), in the city of Moscow, and across the world. The pandemic spreads by a highly complex dynamics because it occurs in open nonhomogeneous systems where new infection...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kurkina, E. S., Koltsova, E. M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8287549/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10598-021-09523-0
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author Kurkina, E. S.
Koltsova, E. M.
author_facet Kurkina, E. S.
Koltsova, E. M.
author_sort Kurkina, E. S.
collection PubMed
description We develop a mathematical model of the coronavirus propagation in different countries (Brazil, India, US, Japan, Israel, Spain, Sweden), in the city of Moscow, and across the world. The pandemic spreads by a highly complex dynamics because it occurs in open nonhomogeneous systems where new infection foci erupt from time to time, triggering new transmission chains from infected to susceptible people. In general, statistical data collected as cumulative and epidemic curves are a superposition of many distinct local pandemic waves. In our modeling, we use the system of Feigenbaum’s discrete logistic equations (a logistic map) that describes the variation of the total number of infected over time. We show that this is the optimal model for the description of pandemic propagation in open nonhomogeneous systems with large errors in statistical data. We develop a procedure for isolating local waves, determining their model parameters, and predicting further evolution of each wave. We show that this model provides a good description of the statistical data and makes realistic forecasts. The forecast horizon depends on the degree of system closure and homogeneity. We calculate the start and end times of each wave, the peak, and the total number of infected in the current wave.
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spelling pubmed-82875492021-07-19 Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World Kurkina, E. S. Koltsova, E. M. Comput Math Model Article We develop a mathematical model of the coronavirus propagation in different countries (Brazil, India, US, Japan, Israel, Spain, Sweden), in the city of Moscow, and across the world. The pandemic spreads by a highly complex dynamics because it occurs in open nonhomogeneous systems where new infection foci erupt from time to time, triggering new transmission chains from infected to susceptible people. In general, statistical data collected as cumulative and epidemic curves are a superposition of many distinct local pandemic waves. In our modeling, we use the system of Feigenbaum’s discrete logistic equations (a logistic map) that describes the variation of the total number of infected over time. We show that this is the optimal model for the description of pandemic propagation in open nonhomogeneous systems with large errors in statistical data. We develop a procedure for isolating local waves, determining their model parameters, and predicting further evolution of each wave. We show that this model provides a good description of the statistical data and makes realistic forecasts. The forecast horizon depends on the degree of system closure and homogeneity. We calculate the start and end times of each wave, the peak, and the total number of infected in the current wave. Springer US 2021-07-19 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8287549/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10598-021-09523-0 Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Kurkina, E. S.
Koltsova, E. M.
Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title_full Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title_fullStr Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title_short Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Covid-19 Pandemic Waves in the World
title_sort mathematical modeling of the propagation of covid-19 pandemic waves in the world
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8287549/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10598-021-09523-0
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