Cargando…

Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination ha...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Min, Kyung-Duk, Tak, Sangwoo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Korean Society of Epidemiology 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8289478/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34082498
http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021040
_version_ 1783724306278121472
author Min, Kyung-Duk
Tak, Sangwoo
author_facet Min, Kyung-Duk
Tak, Sangwoo
author_sort Min, Kyung-Duk
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea. METHODS: A mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination. RESULTS: The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022. CONCLUSIONS: We expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8289478
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Korean Society of Epidemiology
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-82894782021-08-02 Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment Min, Kyung-Duk Tak, Sangwoo Epidemiol Health COVID-19 OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a tremendous impact on public health and socioeconomic conditions globally. Although non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing effectively reduced the incidence of COVID-19, especially in Korea, demand for vaccination has increased to minimize the social costs of NPIs. This study estimated the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination in Korea. METHODS: A mathematical model with vaccinated–susceptible–latent–infectious–recovered compartments was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic. The compartments were stratified into age groups of 0-19 years, 20-59 years, and 60 years or older. Based on the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency national vaccination plan for the second quarter of 2021, announced on March 15, we developed vaccination scenarios (with 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance as the main scenario). Comparing scenarios without vaccination or with higher/lower vaccination rates and compliance, we estimated the numbers of COVID-19 cases that will be prevented by vaccination. RESULTS: The results projected 203,135 cases within a year after April 2021 without vaccination, which would be reduced to 71,248 (64.9% decrease) by vaccination. Supposing a vaccination rate of 150,000 dose/d and 100% compliance, social distancing interventions for those aged 20 or more can be retracted after January 1, 2022. CONCLUSIONS: We expect COVID-19 vaccination to be effective in Korea. Health authorities should minimize delays in vaccination and vaccine avoidance to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination and end social distancing early. Korean Society of Epidemiology 2021-05-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8289478/ /pubmed/34082498 http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021040 Text en ©2021, Korean Society of Epidemiology https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle COVID-19
Min, Kyung-Duk
Tak, Sangwoo
Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title_full Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title_fullStr Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title_short Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment
title_sort dynamics of the covid-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in korea: a rapid assessment
topic COVID-19
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8289478/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34082498
http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021040
work_keys_str_mv AT minkyungduk dynamicsofthecovid19epidemicinthepostvaccinationperiodinkoreaarapidassessment
AT taksangwoo dynamicsofthecovid19epidemicinthepostvaccinationperiodinkoreaarapidassessment