Contributions of economic growth, terrestrial sinks, and atmospheric transport to the increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations over the Korean Peninsula

BACKGROUND: Understanding a carbon budget from a national perspective is essential for establishing effective plans to reduce atmospheric CO(2) growth. The national characteristics of carbon budgets are reflected in atmospheric CO(2) variations; however, separating regional influences on atmospheric signals is challenging owing to atmospheric CO(2) transport. Therefore, in this study, we examined the characteristics of atmospheric CO(2) variations over South and North Korea during 2000–2016 and unveiled the causes of their regional differences in the increasing rate of atmospheric CO(2) concentrations by utilizing atmospheric transport modeling. RESULTS: The atmospheric CO(2) concentration in South Korea is rising by 2.32 ppm year(− 1), which is more than the globally-averaged increase rate of 2.05 ppm year(− 1). Atmospheric transport modeling indicates that the increase in domestic fossil energy supply to support manufacturing export-led economic growth leads to an increase of 0.12 ppm year(− 1) in atmospheric CO(2) in South Korea. Although enhancements of terrestrial carbon uptake estimated from both inverse modeling and process-based models have decreased atmospheric CO(2) by up to 0.02 ppm year(− 1), this decrease is insufficient to offset anthropogenic CO(2) increases. Meanwhile, atmospheric CO(2) in North Korea is also increasing by 2.23 ppm year(− 1), despite a decrease in national CO(2) emissions close to carbon neutrality. The great increases estimated in both South Korea and North Korea are associated with changes in atmospheric transport, including increasing emitted and transported CO(2) from China, which have increased the national atmospheric CO(2) concentrations by 2.23 ppm year(− 1) and 2.27 ppm year(− 1), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study discovered that economic activity is the determinant of regional differences in increasing atmospheric CO(2) in the Korea Peninsula. However, from a global perspective, changes in transported CO(2) are a major driver of rising atmospheric CO(2) over this region, yielding an increase rate higher than the global mean value. Our findings suggest that accurately separating the contributions of atmospheric transport and regional sources to the increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations is important for developing effective strategies to achieve carbon neutrality at the national level.