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Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use a competing-risks model to establish a nomogram to accurately analyse the prognostic factors for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) cancer-specific death (CSD). DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: The programme has yielded a database of...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BMJ Publishing Group
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8291317/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34281927 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048243 |
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author | Li, Chengzhuo Han, Didi Huang, Qiao Xu, Fengshuo Zheng, Shuai Li, Xiang Zhao, Fanfan Feng, Xiaojie Lyu, Jun |
author_facet | Li, Chengzhuo Han, Didi Huang, Qiao Xu, Fengshuo Zheng, Shuai Li, Xiang Zhao, Fanfan Feng, Xiaojie Lyu, Jun |
author_sort | Li, Chengzhuo |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use a competing-risks model to establish a nomogram to accurately analyse the prognostic factors for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) cancer-specific death (CSD). DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: The programme has yielded a database of all patients with cancer in 18 defined geographical regions of the USA. PARTICIPANTS: We selected patients with UTUC from the latest edition of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1975 to 2016. After excluding patients with unknown histological grade, tumour size and lymph node status, 2576 patients were finally selected. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We used the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model for multivariate analysis and compared the results with cause-specific hazards model. We finally constructed a nomogram for 3-year, 5-year and 8-year CSD rates and tested these rates in a validation cohort. RESULTS: The proportional subdistribution hazards model showed that sex, tumour size, distant metastasis, surgery status, number of lymph nodes positive (LNP) and lymph nodes ratio (LNR) were independent prognostic factors for CSD. All significant factors associated with CSD were included in the nomogram. The 3-year, 5-year and 8-year concordance indexes were 0.719, 0.702 and 0.692 in the training cohort and 0.701, 0.675 and 0.668 in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The competing-risks model showed that sex, tumour size, distant metastasis, surgery status, LNP and LNR were associated with CSD. The nomogram predicts the probability of CSD in patients with UTUC at 3, 5 and 8 years, which may help clinicians in predicting survival probabilities in individual patients. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8291317 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-82913172021-08-05 Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis Li, Chengzhuo Han, Didi Huang, Qiao Xu, Fengshuo Zheng, Shuai Li, Xiang Zhao, Fanfan Feng, Xiaojie Lyu, Jun BMJ Open Urology OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use a competing-risks model to establish a nomogram to accurately analyse the prognostic factors for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) cancer-specific death (CSD). DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: The programme has yielded a database of all patients with cancer in 18 defined geographical regions of the USA. PARTICIPANTS: We selected patients with UTUC from the latest edition of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1975 to 2016. After excluding patients with unknown histological grade, tumour size and lymph node status, 2576 patients were finally selected. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We used the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model for multivariate analysis and compared the results with cause-specific hazards model. We finally constructed a nomogram for 3-year, 5-year and 8-year CSD rates and tested these rates in a validation cohort. RESULTS: The proportional subdistribution hazards model showed that sex, tumour size, distant metastasis, surgery status, number of lymph nodes positive (LNP) and lymph nodes ratio (LNR) were independent prognostic factors for CSD. All significant factors associated with CSD were included in the nomogram. The 3-year, 5-year and 8-year concordance indexes were 0.719, 0.702 and 0.692 in the training cohort and 0.701, 0.675 and 0.668 in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The competing-risks model showed that sex, tumour size, distant metastasis, surgery status, LNP and LNR were associated with CSD. The nomogram predicts the probability of CSD in patients with UTUC at 3, 5 and 8 years, which may help clinicians in predicting survival probabilities in individual patients. BMJ Publishing Group 2021-07-19 /pmc/articles/PMC8291317/ /pubmed/34281927 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048243 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Urology Li, Chengzhuo Han, Didi Huang, Qiao Xu, Fengshuo Zheng, Shuai Li, Xiang Zhao, Fanfan Feng, Xiaojie Lyu, Jun Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title | Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title_full | Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title_fullStr | Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title_short | Competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
title_sort | competing-risks nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a population-based analysis |
topic | Urology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8291317/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34281927 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048243 |
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