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Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia

Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymiz...

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Autores principales: Charniga, Kelly, Cucunubá, Zulma M., Mercado, Marcela, Prieto, Franklyn, Ospina, Martha, Nouvellet, Pierre, Donnelly, Christl A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8291727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34214074
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174
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author Charniga, Kelly
Cucunubá, Zulma M.
Mercado, Marcela
Prieto, Franklyn
Ospina, Martha
Nouvellet, Pierre
Donnelly, Christl A.
author_facet Charniga, Kelly
Cucunubá, Zulma M.
Mercado, Marcela
Prieto, Franklyn
Ospina, Martha
Nouvellet, Pierre
Donnelly, Christl A.
author_sort Charniga, Kelly
collection PubMed
description Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014–2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer’s rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer’s rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5–2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.
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spelling pubmed-82917272021-07-31 Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia Charniga, Kelly Cucunubá, Zulma M. Mercado, Marcela Prieto, Franklyn Ospina, Martha Nouvellet, Pierre Donnelly, Christl A. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014–2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer’s rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer’s rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5–2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV. Public Library of Science 2021-07-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8291727/ /pubmed/34214074 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174 Text en © 2021 Charniga et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Charniga, Kelly
Cucunubá, Zulma M.
Mercado, Marcela
Prieto, Franklyn
Ospina, Martha
Nouvellet, Pierre
Donnelly, Christl A.
Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title_full Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title_fullStr Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title_short Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
title_sort spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 zika and chikungunya epidemics in colombia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8291727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34214074
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174
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