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SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission

Testing asymptomatic people for SARS-CoV-2 aims to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Screening programmes’ effectiveness depends upon testing strategy, sample handling logistics, test sensitivity and individual behaviour, in addition to dynamics of viral transmission. The interaction between these facto...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Skittrall, Jordan P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8292014/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34283945
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0164
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author Skittrall, Jordan P.
author_facet Skittrall, Jordan P.
author_sort Skittrall, Jordan P.
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description Testing asymptomatic people for SARS-CoV-2 aims to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Screening programmes’ effectiveness depends upon testing strategy, sample handling logistics, test sensitivity and individual behaviour, in addition to dynamics of viral transmission. The interaction between these factors is not fully characterized. We investigated the interaction between these factors to determine how to optimize reduction of transmission. We estimate that under idealistic assumptions 70% of transmission may be averted, but under realistic assumptions only 7% may be averted. We show that programmes that overwhelm laboratory capacity or reduce isolation of those with minor symptoms have increased transmission compared with those that do not: programmes need to be designed to avoid these issues, or they will be ineffective or even counter-productive. Our model allows optimal selection of whom to test, quantifies the balance between accuracy and timeliness, and quantifies potential impacts of behavioural interventions. We anticipate our model can be used to understand optimal screening strategies for other infectious diseases with substantially different dynamics.
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spelling pubmed-82920142021-07-21 SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission Skittrall, Jordan P. J R Soc Interface Life Sciences–Mathematics interface Testing asymptomatic people for SARS-CoV-2 aims to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Screening programmes’ effectiveness depends upon testing strategy, sample handling logistics, test sensitivity and individual behaviour, in addition to dynamics of viral transmission. The interaction between these factors is not fully characterized. We investigated the interaction between these factors to determine how to optimize reduction of transmission. We estimate that under idealistic assumptions 70% of transmission may be averted, but under realistic assumptions only 7% may be averted. We show that programmes that overwhelm laboratory capacity or reduce isolation of those with minor symptoms have increased transmission compared with those that do not: programmes need to be designed to avoid these issues, or they will be ineffective or even counter-productive. Our model allows optimal selection of whom to test, quantifies the balance between accuracy and timeliness, and quantifies potential impacts of behavioural interventions. We anticipate our model can be used to understand optimal screening strategies for other infectious diseases with substantially different dynamics. The Royal Society 2021-07-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8292014/ /pubmed/34283945 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0164 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
Skittrall, Jordan P.
SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title_full SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title_fullStr SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title_full_unstemmed SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title_short SARS-CoV-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
title_sort sars-cov-2 screening: effectiveness and risk of increasing transmission
topic Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8292014/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34283945
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0164
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