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The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution

AIM: Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenet...

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Autores principales: Nottingham, Sir, Pelletier, Tara A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8293714/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34306628
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735
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author Nottingham, Sir
Pelletier, Tara A.
author_facet Nottingham, Sir
Pelletier, Tara A.
author_sort Nottingham, Sir
collection PubMed
description AIM: Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group. LOCATION: Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT). MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Western Plethodon salamanders. METHODS: Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage. RESULTS: The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.
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spelling pubmed-82937142021-07-23 The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution Nottingham, Sir Pelletier, Tara A. Ecol Evol Original Research AIM: Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group. LOCATION: Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT). MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Western Plethodon salamanders. METHODS: Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage. RESULTS: The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-06-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8293714/ /pubmed/34306628 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Nottingham, Sir
Pelletier, Tara A.
The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title_full The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title_fullStr The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title_full_unstemmed The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title_short The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution
title_sort impact of climate change on western plethodon salamanders’ distribution
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8293714/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34306628
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735
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