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Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology

Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including t...

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Autores principales: Caldwell, Jamie M., Le, Xuan, McIntosh, Lorin, Meehan, Michael T., Ogunlade, Samson, Ragonnet, Romain, O'Neill, Genevieve K., Trauer, James M., McBryde, Emma S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8294600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34417121
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prrv.2021.07.002
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author Caldwell, Jamie M.
Le, Xuan
McIntosh, Lorin
Meehan, Michael T.
Ogunlade, Samson
Ragonnet, Romain
O'Neill, Genevieve K.
Trauer, James M.
McBryde, Emma S.
author_facet Caldwell, Jamie M.
Le, Xuan
McIntosh, Lorin
Meehan, Michael T.
Ogunlade, Samson
Ragonnet, Romain
O'Neill, Genevieve K.
Trauer, James M.
McBryde, Emma S.
author_sort Caldwell, Jamie M.
collection PubMed
description Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern (VoC). We highlight ways in which models continue to provide important insights, including (1) calculating the herd immunity threshold and evaluating its limitations; (2) verifying that nascent vaccines can prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission but may be less efficacious against VoC; (3) determining optimal vaccine allocation strategies under efficacy and supply constraints; and (4) determining that VoC are more transmissible and lethal than previously circulating strains, and that immune escape may jeopardize vaccine-induced herd immunity. Finally, we explore how models can help us anticipate and prepare for future stages of COVID-19 epidemiology (and that of other diseases) through forecasts and scenario projections, given current uncertainties and data limitations.
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spelling pubmed-82946002021-07-21 Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology Caldwell, Jamie M. Le, Xuan McIntosh, Lorin Meehan, Michael T. Ogunlade, Samson Ragonnet, Romain O'Neill, Genevieve K. Trauer, James M. McBryde, Emma S. Paediatr Respir Rev Mini-symposium: COVID 19: The second year Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern (VoC). We highlight ways in which models continue to provide important insights, including (1) calculating the herd immunity threshold and evaluating its limitations; (2) verifying that nascent vaccines can prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission but may be less efficacious against VoC; (3) determining optimal vaccine allocation strategies under efficacy and supply constraints; and (4) determining that VoC are more transmissible and lethal than previously circulating strains, and that immune escape may jeopardize vaccine-induced herd immunity. Finally, we explore how models can help us anticipate and prepare for future stages of COVID-19 epidemiology (and that of other diseases) through forecasts and scenario projections, given current uncertainties and data limitations. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2021-09 2021-07-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8294600/ /pubmed/34417121 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prrv.2021.07.002 Text en © 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Mini-symposium: COVID 19: The second year
Caldwell, Jamie M.
Le, Xuan
McIntosh, Lorin
Meehan, Michael T.
Ogunlade, Samson
Ragonnet, Romain
O'Neill, Genevieve K.
Trauer, James M.
McBryde, Emma S.
Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title_full Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title_fullStr Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title_full_unstemmed Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title_short Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology
title_sort vaccines and variants: modelling insights into emerging issues in covid-19 epidemiology
topic Mini-symposium: COVID 19: The second year
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8294600/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34417121
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prrv.2021.07.002
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