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Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach

The current worldwide pandemic produced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the paradigm of mathematical epidemiology due to the high number of unknowns of this new disease. Thus, the empirical approach has emerged as a robust tool to analyze the actual situation carried by the countr...

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Autores principales: Català, Martí, Marchena, Miquel, Conesa, David, Palacios, Pablo, Urdiales, Tomas, Alonso, Sergio, Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique, Lopez, Daniel, Cardona, Pere-Joan, Prats, Clara
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8295503/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34307270
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.633123
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author Català, Martí
Marchena, Miquel
Conesa, David
Palacios, Pablo
Urdiales, Tomas
Alonso, Sergio
Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique
Lopez, Daniel
Cardona, Pere-Joan
Prats, Clara
author_facet Català, Martí
Marchena, Miquel
Conesa, David
Palacios, Pablo
Urdiales, Tomas
Alonso, Sergio
Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique
Lopez, Daniel
Cardona, Pere-Joan
Prats, Clara
author_sort Català, Martí
collection PubMed
description The current worldwide pandemic produced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the paradigm of mathematical epidemiology due to the high number of unknowns of this new disease. Thus, the empirical approach has emerged as a robust tool to analyze the actual situation carried by the countries and also allows us to predict the incoming scenarios. In this paper, we propose three empirical indexes to estimate the state of the pandemic. These indexes quantify both the propagation and the number of estimated cases, allowing us to accurately determine the real risk of a country. We have calculated these indexes' evolution for several European countries. Risk diagrams are introduced as a tool to visualize the evolution of a country and evaluate its current risk as a function of the number of contagious individuals and the empiric reproduction number. Risk diagrams at the regional level are useful to observe heterogeneity on COVID-19 penetration and spreading in some countries, which is essential during deconfinement processes. During the pandemic, there have been significant differences seen in countries reporting case criterion and detection capacity. Therefore, we have introduced estimations about the real number of infectious cases that allows us to have a broader view and to better estimate the risk. These diagrams and indexes have been successfully used for the monitoring of European countries and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-82955032021-07-23 Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach Català, Martí Marchena, Miquel Conesa, David Palacios, Pablo Urdiales, Tomas Alonso, Sergio Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique Lopez, Daniel Cardona, Pere-Joan Prats, Clara Front Public Health Public Health The current worldwide pandemic produced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the paradigm of mathematical epidemiology due to the high number of unknowns of this new disease. Thus, the empirical approach has emerged as a robust tool to analyze the actual situation carried by the countries and also allows us to predict the incoming scenarios. In this paper, we propose three empirical indexes to estimate the state of the pandemic. These indexes quantify both the propagation and the number of estimated cases, allowing us to accurately determine the real risk of a country. We have calculated these indexes' evolution for several European countries. Risk diagrams are introduced as a tool to visualize the evolution of a country and evaluate its current risk as a function of the number of contagious individuals and the empiric reproduction number. Risk diagrams at the regional level are useful to observe heterogeneity on COVID-19 penetration and spreading in some countries, which is essential during deconfinement processes. During the pandemic, there have been significant differences seen in countries reporting case criterion and detection capacity. Therefore, we have introduced estimations about the real number of infectious cases that allows us to have a broader view and to better estimate the risk. These diagrams and indexes have been successfully used for the monitoring of European countries and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-07-08 /pmc/articles/PMC8295503/ /pubmed/34307270 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.633123 Text en Copyright © 2021 Català, Marchena, Conesa, Palacios, Urdiales, Alonso, Alvarez-Lacalle, Lopez, Cardona and Prats. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Català, Martí
Marchena, Miquel
Conesa, David
Palacios, Pablo
Urdiales, Tomas
Alonso, Sergio
Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique
Lopez, Daniel
Cardona, Pere-Joan
Prats, Clara
Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title_full Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title_fullStr Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title_full_unstemmed Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title_short Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach
title_sort monitoring and analysis of covid-19 pandemic: the need for an empirical approach
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8295503/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34307270
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.633123
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