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Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea

This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during n...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lee, Jae Young, Röösli, Martin, Ragettli, Martina S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8296236/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34199305
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126413
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author Lee, Jae Young
Röösli, Martin
Ragettli, Martina S.
author_facet Lee, Jae Young
Röösli, Martin
Ragettli, Martina S.
author_sort Lee, Jae Young
collection PubMed
description This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during nighttime, and mean, maximum, and minimum apparent temperature) with mortality and performed the cross-validation method to select the best model in selected cities of Switzerland and South Korea from May to September of 1995–2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different metrics varied by 2.69–4.09% in eight cities of Switzerland and by 0.61–0.90% in six cities of South Korea. Based on the cross-validation method, mean temperature was estimated to be the best metric, and it revealed that the HAF of Switzerland and South Korea were 3.29% and 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates of HAF were improved by selecting the best city-specific model for each city, that is, 3.34% for Switzerland and 0.78% for South Korea. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to observe the uncertainty of HAF estimation originated from the selection of temperature metric and to present the HAF estimation based on the cross-validation method.
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spelling pubmed-82962362021-07-23 Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea Lee, Jae Young Röösli, Martin Ragettli, Martina S. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during nighttime, and mean, maximum, and minimum apparent temperature) with mortality and performed the cross-validation method to select the best model in selected cities of Switzerland and South Korea from May to September of 1995–2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different metrics varied by 2.69–4.09% in eight cities of Switzerland and by 0.61–0.90% in six cities of South Korea. Based on the cross-validation method, mean temperature was estimated to be the best metric, and it revealed that the HAF of Switzerland and South Korea were 3.29% and 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates of HAF were improved by selecting the best city-specific model for each city, that is, 3.34% for Switzerland and 0.78% for South Korea. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to observe the uncertainty of HAF estimation originated from the selection of temperature metric and to present the HAF estimation based on the cross-validation method. MDPI 2021-06-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8296236/ /pubmed/34199305 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126413 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Lee, Jae Young
Röösli, Martin
Ragettli, Martina S.
Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title_full Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title_fullStr Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title_short Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea
title_sort estimation of heat-attributable mortality using the cross-validated best temperature metric in switzerland and south korea
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8296236/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34199305
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126413
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