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The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China

(1) Background: Because of the rapid expansion of the aging population in China, their health status transition and future medical expenditure have received increasing attention. This paper analyzes the health transition of the elderly and how their health transition impacts medical expenditures. At...

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Autores principales: Wang, Lianjie, Tang, Yao, Roshanmehr, Farnaz, Bai, Xiao, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farzad, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8296990/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34199100
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136907
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author Wang, Lianjie
Tang, Yao
Roshanmehr, Farnaz
Bai, Xiao
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farzad
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
author_facet Wang, Lianjie
Tang, Yao
Roshanmehr, Farnaz
Bai, Xiao
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farzad
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
author_sort Wang, Lianjie
collection PubMed
description (1) Background: Because of the rapid expansion of the aging population in China, their health status transition and future medical expenditure have received increasing attention. This paper analyzes the health transition of the elderly and how their health transition impacts medical expenditures. At the same time, feasible policy suggestions are provided to respond to the rising medical expenditure and the demand for social care. (2) Methods: The data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015 and analyzed using the Markov model and the Two-Part model (TPM) to forecast the size of the elderly population and their medical expenditures for the period 2020–2060. (3) Results: The study indicates that: (1) for the elderly with a mild disability, the probability of their health improvement is high; in contrast, for the elderly with a moderate or severe disability, their health deterioration is almost certain; (2) the frequency of the diagnosis and treatments of the elderly is closely related to their health status and medical expenditure; alternatively, as the health status deteriorates, the intensity of the elderly individuals’ acceptance of their diagnosis and treatment increases, and so does the medical expense; (3) the population of the elderly with mild and moderate disability demonstrates an inverted “U”-shape, which reaches a peak around 2048, whereas the elderly with severe disability show linear growth, being the target group for health care; (4) with the population increase of the elderly who have severe disability, the medical expenditure increases significantly and poses a huge threat to medical service supply. Conclusions: It is necessary to provide classified and targeted health care according to the health status of the elderly. In addition, improving the level of medical insurance, establishing a mechanism for sharing medical expenditure, and adjusting the basic demographic structure are all important policy choices.
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spelling pubmed-82969902021-07-23 The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China Wang, Lianjie Tang, Yao Roshanmehr, Farnaz Bai, Xiao Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farzad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad Int J Environ Res Public Health Article (1) Background: Because of the rapid expansion of the aging population in China, their health status transition and future medical expenditure have received increasing attention. This paper analyzes the health transition of the elderly and how their health transition impacts medical expenditures. At the same time, feasible policy suggestions are provided to respond to the rising medical expenditure and the demand for social care. (2) Methods: The data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015 and analyzed using the Markov model and the Two-Part model (TPM) to forecast the size of the elderly population and their medical expenditures for the period 2020–2060. (3) Results: The study indicates that: (1) for the elderly with a mild disability, the probability of their health improvement is high; in contrast, for the elderly with a moderate or severe disability, their health deterioration is almost certain; (2) the frequency of the diagnosis and treatments of the elderly is closely related to their health status and medical expenditure; alternatively, as the health status deteriorates, the intensity of the elderly individuals’ acceptance of their diagnosis and treatment increases, and so does the medical expense; (3) the population of the elderly with mild and moderate disability demonstrates an inverted “U”-shape, which reaches a peak around 2048, whereas the elderly with severe disability show linear growth, being the target group for health care; (4) with the population increase of the elderly who have severe disability, the medical expenditure increases significantly and poses a huge threat to medical service supply. Conclusions: It is necessary to provide classified and targeted health care according to the health status of the elderly. In addition, improving the level of medical insurance, establishing a mechanism for sharing medical expenditure, and adjusting the basic demographic structure are all important policy choices. MDPI 2021-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8296990/ /pubmed/34199100 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136907 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Lianjie
Tang, Yao
Roshanmehr, Farnaz
Bai, Xiao
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farzad
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title_full The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title_fullStr The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title_full_unstemmed The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title_short The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China
title_sort health status transition and medical expenditure evaluation of elderly population in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8296990/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34199100
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18136907
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