A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period

Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model are directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some anal...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Saakian, David B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8297963/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.07.007
Descripción
Sumario:Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model are directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some analytical results, as well as perform numerical simulations. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia.

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