A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period

Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model are directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some anal...

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Autor principal: Saakian, David B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8297963/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.07.007
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author Saakian, David B.
author_facet Saakian, David B.
author_sort Saakian, David B.
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description Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model are directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some analytical results, as well as perform numerical simulations. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia.
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spelling pubmed-82979632021-07-23 A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period Saakian, David B. Chin J Phys Article Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model are directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some analytical results, as well as perform numerical simulations. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia. The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-10 2021-07-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8297963/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.07.007 Text en © 2021 The Physical Society of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Saakian, David B.
A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title_full A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title_fullStr A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title_full_unstemmed A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title_short A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
title_sort simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8297963/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cjph.2021.07.007
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