Use of Charlson Comorbidity Index and Nomogram to Predict Mortality in Elderly Patients with Late-Life Schizophrenia

Objectives: Comorbid illness burden signifies a poor prognosis in schizophrenia. The aims of this study were to estimate the severity of comorbidities in elderly patients with schizophrenia, determine risk factors associated with mortality, and establish a reliable nomogram for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality and survival. Methods: This population-based study rigorously selected schizophrenia patients (≥65 years) having their first admission due to schizophrenia during the study period (2000–2013). Comorbidity was scored using the updated Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Results: This study comprised 3827 subjects. The mean stay of first admission due to schizophrenia was 26 days. Mean numbers of schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia-related hospitalization (not including the first admission) were 1.80 and 3.58, respectively. Mean ages at death were 73.50, 82.14 and 89.32 years old, and the mean times from first admission to death were 4.24, 3.33, and 1.87 years in three different age groups, respectively. Nearly 30% were diagnosed with ≥3 comorbidities. The most frequent comorbidities were dementia, chronic pulmonary disease and diabetes. The estimated 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 90%, 70%, and 64%, respectively. Schizophrenia patients with comorbid diseases are at increased risk of hospitalization and mortality (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The nomogram, composed of age, sex, the severity of comorbidity burden, and working type could be applied to predict mortality risk in the extremely fragile patients.