Cargando…
COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8310337/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34358145 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728 |
_version_ | 1783728736214974464 |
---|---|
author | Hussein, Tareq Hammad, Mahmoud H. Fung, Pak Lun Al-Kloub, Marwan Odeh, Issam Zaidan, Martha A. Wraith, Darren |
author_facet | Hussein, Tareq Hammad, Mahmoud H. Fung, Pak Lun Al-Kloub, Marwan Odeh, Issam Zaidan, Martha A. Wraith, Darren |
author_sort | Hussein, Tareq |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8310337 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83103372021-07-25 COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting Hussein, Tareq Hammad, Mahmoud H. Fung, Pak Lun Al-Kloub, Marwan Odeh, Issam Zaidan, Martha A. Wraith, Darren Vaccines (Basel) Article In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. MDPI 2021-07-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8310337/ /pubmed/34358145 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Hussein, Tareq Hammad, Mahmoud H. Fung, Pak Lun Al-Kloub, Marwan Odeh, Issam Zaidan, Martha A. Wraith, Darren COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title_full | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title_fullStr | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title_short | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
title_sort | covid-19 pandemic development in jordan—short-term and long-term forecasting |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8310337/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34358145 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT husseintareq covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT hammadmahmoudh covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT fungpaklun covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT alkloubmarwan covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT odehissam covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT zaidanmarthaa covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting AT wraithdarren covid19pandemicdevelopmentinjordanshorttermandlongtermforecasting |