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COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting

In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach...

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Autores principales: Hussein, Tareq, Hammad, Mahmoud H., Fung, Pak Lun, Al-Kloub, Marwan, Odeh, Issam, Zaidan, Martha A., Wraith, Darren
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8310337/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34358145
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728
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author Hussein, Tareq
Hammad, Mahmoud H.
Fung, Pak Lun
Al-Kloub, Marwan
Odeh, Issam
Zaidan, Martha A.
Wraith, Darren
author_facet Hussein, Tareq
Hammad, Mahmoud H.
Fung, Pak Lun
Al-Kloub, Marwan
Odeh, Issam
Zaidan, Martha A.
Wraith, Darren
author_sort Hussein, Tareq
collection PubMed
description In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.
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spelling pubmed-83103372021-07-25 COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting Hussein, Tareq Hammad, Mahmoud H. Fung, Pak Lun Al-Kloub, Marwan Odeh, Issam Zaidan, Martha A. Wraith, Darren Vaccines (Basel) Article In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. MDPI 2021-07-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8310337/ /pubmed/34358145 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Hussein, Tareq
Hammad, Mahmoud H.
Fung, Pak Lun
Al-Kloub, Marwan
Odeh, Issam
Zaidan, Martha A.
Wraith, Darren
COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title_full COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title_fullStr COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title_short COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
title_sort covid-19 pandemic development in jordan—short-term and long-term forecasting
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8310337/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34358145
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070728
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