Prediction of ovarian response in IVF/ICSI cycles

OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to evaluate the various correlations between demographic, biochemical, ultrasound, and ovarian stimulation parameters with the percentage of mature oocytes in conventional stimulation for IVF/ICSI cycles in order to develop a predictive model to improve our understanding of the oocyte maturation process. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study; patients underwent conventional antagonist ovarian stimulation protocols for fresh IVF/ICSI cycles. A total of 256 IVF/ICSI cycles were included. Age, antral follicle count (AFC), baseline serum follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels, baseline serum luteinizing hormone (LH) levels, baseline serum estradiol (E2) levels, peak estradiol, P4 on hCG day, the body mass index (BMI), and stimulation length were measured. The variables were tested for correlations with the number of retrieved oocytes (#RO) and the number of mature oocytes (#MO). A backward stepwise regression was performed to identify the variables that correlated more strongly with percentage of mature oocytes (%MO). RESULTS: A predictive equation was obtained with the variables that were not excluded in the model. % MO = 72.700 - 0.910 (Age) + 0.979 (BMI) + 1.209 (Baseline serum LH) - 0.647 (Progesterone on human Chorionic Gonadotropin day). CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that age, the BMI, baseline serum LH, and progesterone level on hCG day may predict %MO. Prospective studies are required to validate this predictive equation.