Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chintalapudi, Nalini, Battineni, Gopi, Amenta, Francesco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Microarticle
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8313897/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34336564
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
Descripción
Sumario:The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

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