Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19...

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Autores principales: Chintalapudi, Nalini, Battineni, Gopi, Amenta, Francesco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Microarticle
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8313897/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34336564
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
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author Chintalapudi, Nalini
Battineni, Gopi
Amenta, Francesco
author_facet Chintalapudi, Nalini
Battineni, Gopi
Amenta, Francesco
author_sort Chintalapudi, Nalini
collection PubMed
description The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.
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spelling pubmed-83138972021-07-27 Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections Chintalapudi, Nalini Battineni, Gopi Amenta, Francesco Results Phys Microarticle The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-09 2021-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8313897/ /pubmed/34336564 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Microarticle
Chintalapudi, Nalini
Battineni, Gopi
Amenta, Francesco
Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title_full Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title_fullStr Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title_full_unstemmed Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title_short Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
title_sort second wave of covid-19 in italy: preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
topic Microarticle
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8313897/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34336564
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
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