Incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy in Indonesia: Estimates from 1990–2019, with projections to 2030

BACKGROUND: ‘Indirect’ causes of maternal death including concomitant illnesses such as infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), accounted for 23% of maternal deaths in Indonesia in 2010. Reproductive-age women in Indonesia face a “double burden” of disease with increasing rates of NCDs and persisting rates of infectious disease. However, there is a lack of data on the burden of these diseases in pregnancy. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence of concomitant illnesses among pregnant women in Indonesia from 1990–2030. METHODS: Publicly available data was accessed including incidence of concomitant illnesses in Indonesian reproductive-age women, population data and crude birth rate data from 1990–2019, and formed basis for projections to 2030. A dataset of estimates for all variables was generated for each year and sampled from a binomial distribution. Using these estimates, pregnancy estimates and incidence in pregnant women were calculated. A cubic splines model was fitted to generate estimates of incidence of concomitant illnesses in pregnancy. FINDINGS: Past trends to 2019 show a decline in incident cases of infectious diseases except for HIV/AIDs, and an increase in most NCDs. In 2019, the most common disease was sexually transmitted infections. From 2020–2030, incidences of diabetes and lower respiratory infections are estimated to continue to increase. INTERPRETATION: With an increasing incidence of NCDs and high-incidence of infectious diseases in pregnancy, Indonesian policymakers and stakeholders should consider what evidence-based strategies and interventions are best to reduce potential impacts of concomitant illnesses on pregnancy outcomes. FUNDING: Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.