Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands

BACKGROUND: Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence. METHODS: Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition. FINDINGS: Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data. INTERPRETATION: The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG. This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.