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An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence
Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choic...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8318232/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34270552 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009213 |
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author | Moeller, Moritz Grohn, Jan Manohar, Sanjay Bogacz, Rafal |
author_facet | Moeller, Moritz Grohn, Jan Manohar, Sanjay Bogacz, Rafal |
author_sort | Moeller, Moritz |
collection | PubMed |
description | Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8318232 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83182322021-07-31 An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence Moeller, Moritz Grohn, Jan Manohar, Sanjay Bogacz, Rafal PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates. Public Library of Science 2021-07-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8318232/ /pubmed/34270552 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009213 Text en © 2021 Moeller et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Moeller, Moritz Grohn, Jan Manohar, Sanjay Bogacz, Rafal An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title | An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title_full | An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title_fullStr | An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title_full_unstemmed | An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title_short | An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence |
title_sort | association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: theory and behavioral evidence |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8318232/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34270552 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009213 |
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