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Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050
The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two d...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319185/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34321572 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94793-2 |
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author | Raghavan, Ram K. Koestel, Z. Ierardi, R. Peterson, A. Townsend Cobos, Marlon E. |
author_facet | Raghavan, Ram K. Koestel, Z. Ierardi, R. Peterson, A. Townsend Cobos, Marlon E. |
author_sort | Raghavan, Ram K. |
collection | PubMed |
description | The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two decades, and gridded environmental variables at 1 km(2) resolution representing climate conditions, were used to derive correlative ecological niche models to predict the current and future potential distribution. Several hundreds of candidate models were constructed with varying combinations of model parameters, and the best-fitting model was chosen based on statistical significance, omission rate, and Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). The best-fitting model matches the currently known distribution but also extends through most of the coastal areas in the south, and up to the Kimbolton peninsula in Western Australia in the north. Highly suitable areas are present around south of Perth, extending towards Albany, Western Australia. Most areas in Tasmania, where the species is not currently present, are also highly suitable. Future spatial distribution of this tick in the year 2050 indicates moderate increase in climatic suitability from the present-day prediction but noticeably also moderate to low loss of climatically suitable areas elsewhere. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8319185 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83191852021-07-29 Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 Raghavan, Ram K. Koestel, Z. Ierardi, R. Peterson, A. Townsend Cobos, Marlon E. Sci Rep Article The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two decades, and gridded environmental variables at 1 km(2) resolution representing climate conditions, were used to derive correlative ecological niche models to predict the current and future potential distribution. Several hundreds of candidate models were constructed with varying combinations of model parameters, and the best-fitting model was chosen based on statistical significance, omission rate, and Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). The best-fitting model matches the currently known distribution but also extends through most of the coastal areas in the south, and up to the Kimbolton peninsula in Western Australia in the north. Highly suitable areas are present around south of Perth, extending towards Albany, Western Australia. Most areas in Tasmania, where the species is not currently present, are also highly suitable. Future spatial distribution of this tick in the year 2050 indicates moderate increase in climatic suitability from the present-day prediction but noticeably also moderate to low loss of climatically suitable areas elsewhere. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-07-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8319185/ /pubmed/34321572 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94793-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Raghavan, Ram K. Koestel, Z. Ierardi, R. Peterson, A. Townsend Cobos, Marlon E. Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title | Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title_full | Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title_fullStr | Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed | Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title_short | Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
title_sort | climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319185/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34321572 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94793-2 |
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