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Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply
BACKGROUND: At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population,...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319712/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34325717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-021-00143-0 |
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author | Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo |
author_facet | Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo |
author_sort | Amaku, Marcos |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. METHODS: We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. RESULTS: The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8319712 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83197122021-07-29 Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo Theor Biol Med Model Research BACKGROUND: At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. METHODS: We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. RESULTS: The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time. BioMed Central 2021-07-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8319712/ /pubmed/34325717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-021-00143-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Amaku, Marcos Covas, Dimas Tadeu Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Azevedo, Raymundo Soares Massad, Eduardo Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title | Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title_full | Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title_fullStr | Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title_short | Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
title_sort | modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against sars-cov-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8319712/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34325717 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12976-021-00143-0 |
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