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A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and globa...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8321710/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34345876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185 |
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author | Iftekhar, Emil Nafis Priesemann, Viola Balling, Rudi Bauer, Simon Beutels, Philippe Calero Valdez, André Cuschieri, Sarah Czypionka, Thomas Dumpis, Uga Glaab, Enrico Grill, Eva Hanson, Claudia Hotulainen, Pirta Klimek, Peter Kretzschmar, Mirjam Krüger, Tyll Krutzinna, Jenny Low, Nicola Machado, Helena Martins, Carlos McKee, Martin Mohr, Sebastian Bernd Nassehi, Armin Perc, Matjaž Petelos, Elena Pickersgill, Martyn Prainsack, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Schernhammer, Eva Staines, Anthony Szczurek, Ewa Tsiodras, Sotirios Van Gucht, Steven Willeit, Peter |
author_facet | Iftekhar, Emil Nafis Priesemann, Viola Balling, Rudi Bauer, Simon Beutels, Philippe Calero Valdez, André Cuschieri, Sarah Czypionka, Thomas Dumpis, Uga Glaab, Enrico Grill, Eva Hanson, Claudia Hotulainen, Pirta Klimek, Peter Kretzschmar, Mirjam Krüger, Tyll Krutzinna, Jenny Low, Nicola Machado, Helena Martins, Carlos McKee, Martin Mohr, Sebastian Bernd Nassehi, Armin Perc, Matjaž Petelos, Elena Pickersgill, Martyn Prainsack, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Schernhammer, Eva Staines, Anthony Szczurek, Ewa Tsiodras, Sotirios Van Gucht, Steven Willeit, Peter |
author_sort | Iftekhar, Emil Nafis |
collection | PubMed |
description | How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8321710 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83217102021-07-30 A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation Iftekhar, Emil Nafis Priesemann, Viola Balling, Rudi Bauer, Simon Beutels, Philippe Calero Valdez, André Cuschieri, Sarah Czypionka, Thomas Dumpis, Uga Glaab, Enrico Grill, Eva Hanson, Claudia Hotulainen, Pirta Klimek, Peter Kretzschmar, Mirjam Krüger, Tyll Krutzinna, Jenny Low, Nicola Machado, Helena Martins, Carlos McKee, Martin Mohr, Sebastian Bernd Nassehi, Armin Perc, Matjaž Petelos, Elena Pickersgill, Martyn Prainsack, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Schernhammer, Eva Staines, Anthony Szczurek, Ewa Tsiodras, Sotirios Van Gucht, Steven Willeit, Peter Lancet Reg Health Eur Viewpoint How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. Elsevier 2021-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8321710/ /pubmed/34345876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Viewpoint Iftekhar, Emil Nafis Priesemann, Viola Balling, Rudi Bauer, Simon Beutels, Philippe Calero Valdez, André Cuschieri, Sarah Czypionka, Thomas Dumpis, Uga Glaab, Enrico Grill, Eva Hanson, Claudia Hotulainen, Pirta Klimek, Peter Kretzschmar, Mirjam Krüger, Tyll Krutzinna, Jenny Low, Nicola Machado, Helena Martins, Carlos McKee, Martin Mohr, Sebastian Bernd Nassehi, Armin Perc, Matjaž Petelos, Elena Pickersgill, Martyn Prainsack, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Schernhammer, Eva Staines, Anthony Szczurek, Ewa Tsiodras, Sotirios Van Gucht, Steven Willeit, Peter A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title | A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title_full | A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title_fullStr | A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title_full_unstemmed | A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title_short | A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation |
title_sort | look into the future of the covid-19 pandemic in europe: an expert consultation |
topic | Viewpoint |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8321710/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34345876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185 |
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