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A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and globa...

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Autores principales: Iftekhar, Emil Nafis, Priesemann, Viola, Balling, Rudi, Bauer, Simon, Beutels, Philippe, Calero Valdez, André, Cuschieri, Sarah, Czypionka, Thomas, Dumpis, Uga, Glaab, Enrico, Grill, Eva, Hanson, Claudia, Hotulainen, Pirta, Klimek, Peter, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Krüger, Tyll, Krutzinna, Jenny, Low, Nicola, Machado, Helena, Martins, Carlos, McKee, Martin, Mohr, Sebastian Bernd, Nassehi, Armin, Perc, Matjaž, Petelos, Elena, Pickersgill, Martyn, Prainsack, Barbara, Rocklöv, Joacim, Schernhammer, Eva, Staines, Anthony, Szczurek, Ewa, Tsiodras, Sotirios, Van Gucht, Steven, Willeit, Peter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8321710/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34345876
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
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author Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
Priesemann, Viola
Balling, Rudi
Bauer, Simon
Beutels, Philippe
Calero Valdez, André
Cuschieri, Sarah
Czypionka, Thomas
Dumpis, Uga
Glaab, Enrico
Grill, Eva
Hanson, Claudia
Hotulainen, Pirta
Klimek, Peter
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Krüger, Tyll
Krutzinna, Jenny
Low, Nicola
Machado, Helena
Martins, Carlos
McKee, Martin
Mohr, Sebastian Bernd
Nassehi, Armin
Perc, Matjaž
Petelos, Elena
Pickersgill, Martyn
Prainsack, Barbara
Rocklöv, Joacim
Schernhammer, Eva
Staines, Anthony
Szczurek, Ewa
Tsiodras, Sotirios
Van Gucht, Steven
Willeit, Peter
author_facet Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
Priesemann, Viola
Balling, Rudi
Bauer, Simon
Beutels, Philippe
Calero Valdez, André
Cuschieri, Sarah
Czypionka, Thomas
Dumpis, Uga
Glaab, Enrico
Grill, Eva
Hanson, Claudia
Hotulainen, Pirta
Klimek, Peter
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Krüger, Tyll
Krutzinna, Jenny
Low, Nicola
Machado, Helena
Martins, Carlos
McKee, Martin
Mohr, Sebastian Bernd
Nassehi, Armin
Perc, Matjaž
Petelos, Elena
Pickersgill, Martyn
Prainsack, Barbara
Rocklöv, Joacim
Schernhammer, Eva
Staines, Anthony
Szczurek, Ewa
Tsiodras, Sotirios
Van Gucht, Steven
Willeit, Peter
author_sort Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
collection PubMed
description How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-83217102021-07-30 A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation Iftekhar, Emil Nafis Priesemann, Viola Balling, Rudi Bauer, Simon Beutels, Philippe Calero Valdez, André Cuschieri, Sarah Czypionka, Thomas Dumpis, Uga Glaab, Enrico Grill, Eva Hanson, Claudia Hotulainen, Pirta Klimek, Peter Kretzschmar, Mirjam Krüger, Tyll Krutzinna, Jenny Low, Nicola Machado, Helena Martins, Carlos McKee, Martin Mohr, Sebastian Bernd Nassehi, Armin Perc, Matjaž Petelos, Elena Pickersgill, Martyn Prainsack, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Schernhammer, Eva Staines, Anthony Szczurek, Ewa Tsiodras, Sotirios Van Gucht, Steven Willeit, Peter Lancet Reg Health Eur Viewpoint How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic. Elsevier 2021-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8321710/ /pubmed/34345876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Viewpoint
Iftekhar, Emil Nafis
Priesemann, Viola
Balling, Rudi
Bauer, Simon
Beutels, Philippe
Calero Valdez, André
Cuschieri, Sarah
Czypionka, Thomas
Dumpis, Uga
Glaab, Enrico
Grill, Eva
Hanson, Claudia
Hotulainen, Pirta
Klimek, Peter
Kretzschmar, Mirjam
Krüger, Tyll
Krutzinna, Jenny
Low, Nicola
Machado, Helena
Martins, Carlos
McKee, Martin
Mohr, Sebastian Bernd
Nassehi, Armin
Perc, Matjaž
Petelos, Elena
Pickersgill, Martyn
Prainsack, Barbara
Rocklöv, Joacim
Schernhammer, Eva
Staines, Anthony
Szczurek, Ewa
Tsiodras, Sotirios
Van Gucht, Steven
Willeit, Peter
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title_full A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title_fullStr A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title_full_unstemmed A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title_short A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
title_sort look into the future of the covid-19 pandemic in europe: an expert consultation
topic Viewpoint
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8321710/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34345876
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
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