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Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020

COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-...

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Autores principales: Dorrucci, Maria, Minelli, Giada, Boros, Stefano, Manno, Valerio, Prati, Sabrina, Battaglini, Marco, Corsetti, Gianni, Andrianou, Xanthi, Riccardo, Flavia, Fabiani, Massimo, Vescio, Maria Fenicia, Spuri, Matteo, Urdiales, Alberto Mateo, Martina, Del Manso, Onder, Graziano, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Bella, Antonino
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8322580/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34336767
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.669209
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author Dorrucci, Maria
Minelli, Giada
Boros, Stefano
Manno, Valerio
Prati, Sabrina
Battaglini, Marco
Corsetti, Gianni
Andrianou, Xanthi
Riccardo, Flavia
Fabiani, Massimo
Vescio, Maria Fenicia
Spuri, Matteo
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Martina, Del Manso
Onder, Graziano
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Bella, Antonino
author_facet Dorrucci, Maria
Minelli, Giada
Boros, Stefano
Manno, Valerio
Prati, Sabrina
Battaglini, Marco
Corsetti, Gianni
Andrianou, Xanthi
Riccardo, Flavia
Fabiani, Massimo
Vescio, Maria Fenicia
Spuri, Matteo
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Martina, Del Manso
Onder, Graziano
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Bella, Antonino
author_sort Dorrucci, Maria
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-cause excess mortality between the two waves that occurred during the year 2020 using nationwide data. All-cause excess mortalities were estimated using negative binomial models with time modeled by quadratic splines. The models were also applied to estimate all-cause excess deaths “not directly attributable to COVD-19”, i.e., without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the first wave (25th February−31st May), we estimated 52,437 excess deaths (95% CI: 49,213–55,863) and 50,979 (95% CI: 50,333–51,425) during the second phase (10th October−31st December), corresponding to percentage 34.8% (95% CI: 33.8%–35.8%) in the second wave and 31.0% (95%CI: 27.2%–35.4%) in the first. During both waves, all-cause excess deaths percentages were higher in northern regions (59.1% during the first and 42.2% in the second wave), with a significant increase in the rest of Italy (from 6.7% to 27.1%) during the second wave. Males and those aged 80 or over were the most hit groups with an increase in both during the second wave. Excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 decreased during the second phase with respect to the first phase, from 10.8% (95% CI: 9.5%–12.4%) to 7.7% (95% CI: 7.5%–7.9%), respectively. The percentage increase in excess deaths from all causes suggests in Italy a different impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the second wave in 2020. The decrease in excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 may indicate an improvement in the preparedness of the Italian health care services during this second wave, in the detection of COVID-19 diagnoses and/or clinical practice toward the other severe diseases.
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spelling pubmed-83225802021-07-31 Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020 Dorrucci, Maria Minelli, Giada Boros, Stefano Manno, Valerio Prati, Sabrina Battaglini, Marco Corsetti, Gianni Andrianou, Xanthi Riccardo, Flavia Fabiani, Massimo Vescio, Maria Fenicia Spuri, Matteo Urdiales, Alberto Mateo Martina, Del Manso Onder, Graziano Pezzotti, Patrizio Bella, Antonino Front Public Health Public Health COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-cause excess mortality between the two waves that occurred during the year 2020 using nationwide data. All-cause excess mortalities were estimated using negative binomial models with time modeled by quadratic splines. The models were also applied to estimate all-cause excess deaths “not directly attributable to COVD-19”, i.e., without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the first wave (25th February−31st May), we estimated 52,437 excess deaths (95% CI: 49,213–55,863) and 50,979 (95% CI: 50,333–51,425) during the second phase (10th October−31st December), corresponding to percentage 34.8% (95% CI: 33.8%–35.8%) in the second wave and 31.0% (95%CI: 27.2%–35.4%) in the first. During both waves, all-cause excess deaths percentages were higher in northern regions (59.1% during the first and 42.2% in the second wave), with a significant increase in the rest of Italy (from 6.7% to 27.1%) during the second wave. Males and those aged 80 or over were the most hit groups with an increase in both during the second wave. Excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 decreased during the second phase with respect to the first phase, from 10.8% (95% CI: 9.5%–12.4%) to 7.7% (95% CI: 7.5%–7.9%), respectively. The percentage increase in excess deaths from all causes suggests in Italy a different impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the second wave in 2020. The decrease in excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 may indicate an improvement in the preparedness of the Italian health care services during this second wave, in the detection of COVID-19 diagnoses and/or clinical practice toward the other severe diseases. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-07-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8322580/ /pubmed/34336767 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.669209 Text en Copyright © 2021 Dorrucci, Minelli, Boros, Manno, Prati, Battaglini, Corsetti, Andrianou, Riccardo, Fabiani, Vescio, Spuri, Urdiales, Martina, Onder, Pezzotti and Bella. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Dorrucci, Maria
Minelli, Giada
Boros, Stefano
Manno, Valerio
Prati, Sabrina
Battaglini, Marco
Corsetti, Gianni
Andrianou, Xanthi
Riccardo, Flavia
Fabiani, Massimo
Vescio, Maria Fenicia
Spuri, Matteo
Urdiales, Alberto Mateo
Martina, Del Manso
Onder, Graziano
Pezzotti, Patrizio
Bella, Antonino
Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title_full Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title_fullStr Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title_full_unstemmed Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title_short Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020
title_sort excess mortality in italy during the covid-19 pandemic: assessing the differences between the first and the second wave, year 2020
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8322580/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34336767
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.669209
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