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Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries

We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hosp...

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Autores principales: Parisi, Andrea, Brand, Samuel P. C., Hilton, Joe, Aziza, Rabia, Keeling, Matt J., Nokes, D. James
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8323901/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34283832
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090
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author Parisi, Andrea
Brand, Samuel P. C.
Hilton, Joe
Aziza, Rabia
Keeling, Matt J.
Nokes, D. James
author_facet Parisi, Andrea
Brand, Samuel P. C.
Hilton, Joe
Aziza, Rabia
Keeling, Matt J.
Nokes, D. James
author_sort Parisi, Andrea
collection PubMed
description We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied.
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spelling pubmed-83239012021-07-31 Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries Parisi, Andrea Brand, Samuel P. C. Hilton, Joe Aziza, Rabia Keeling, Matt J. Nokes, D. James PLoS Comput Biol Research Article We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied. Public Library of Science 2021-07-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8323901/ /pubmed/34283832 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090 Text en © 2021 Parisi et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Parisi, Andrea
Brand, Samuel P. C.
Hilton, Joe
Aziza, Rabia
Keeling, Matt J.
Nokes, D. James
Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title_full Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title_fullStr Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title_full_unstemmed Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title_short Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
title_sort spatially resolved simulations of the spread of covid-19 in three european countries
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8323901/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34283832
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090
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