Geo-prioritization framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation in India

Up until now, countries have adopted a ‘isolate-test-treat-trace’ strategy to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The next critical intervention in the fight against COVID-19 will be effective delivery of safe and efficacious vaccines. Various countries such as the USA, the UK, Canada, Israel, etc., have started administering vaccines to priority population groups. India is gearing up its critical components of the vaccine delivery system to effectively deliver vaccines across the country and has prioritized certain population groups to whom the vaccine will be administered. Considering India’s ambitious target to vaccinate close to 300 million people in the first phase of the vaccination drive with limited initial supply (which will be ramped up gradually), it is critical for stakeholders at all the levels – national, state and district – to understand the estimated need for vaccines across geographies based on the vulnerable population and disease epidemiology with the objective of preventing maximum number of future infections from the disease. This paper aims to describe a comprehensive geo-prioritization framework based on existing prevalence of COVID-19, high-risk co-morbidities, and demographic analysis to identify states/districts that could be most in need of the COVID-19 vaccines.