Cargando…
Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19
On 4 November 2020 the Italian government introduced a new policy to address the second wave of COVID-19. Based on a battery of indicators, the 21 administrative regions of Italy were assigned a risk level among yellow, orange, red, and, starting on 6 November 2020, different type of restrictions we...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325386/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34373109 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.07.011 |
_version_ | 1783731550985125888 |
---|---|
author | Pelagatti, Matteo Maranzano, Paolo |
author_facet | Pelagatti, Matteo Maranzano, Paolo |
author_sort | Pelagatti, Matteo |
collection | PubMed |
description | On 4 November 2020 the Italian government introduced a new policy to address the second wave of COVID-19. Based on a battery of indicators, the 21 administrative regions of Italy were assigned a risk level among yellow, orange, red, and, starting on 6 November 2020, different type of restrictions were applied accordingly. This event represents a natural experiment that allows the evaluation of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, free from those nuisance factors affecting cross-national studies. In this work, we extract the daily growth rate of new cases, hospitalizations and patients in ICU from official data using an unobserved components model and assess how the different restrictions had different impacts in reducing the speed of spread of the virus. We find that all the three packages of restrictions have an effect on the speed of spread of the disease, but while the mildest (yellow) policy leads to a constant number of hospitalizations (zero growth rate), the strictest (red) policy is able to halve the number of accesses to regular wards and intensive care units in about one month. The effects of the intermediate (orange) policy are more volatile and seem to be only slightly more effective than the milder (yellow) policy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8325386 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83253862021-08-02 Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 Pelagatti, Matteo Maranzano, Paolo Health Policy Article On 4 November 2020 the Italian government introduced a new policy to address the second wave of COVID-19. Based on a battery of indicators, the 21 administrative regions of Italy were assigned a risk level among yellow, orange, red, and, starting on 6 November 2020, different type of restrictions were applied accordingly. This event represents a natural experiment that allows the evaluation of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, free from those nuisance factors affecting cross-national studies. In this work, we extract the daily growth rate of new cases, hospitalizations and patients in ICU from official data using an unobserved components model and assess how the different restrictions had different impacts in reducing the speed of spread of the virus. We find that all the three packages of restrictions have an effect on the speed of spread of the disease, but while the mildest (yellow) policy leads to a constant number of hospitalizations (zero growth rate), the strictest (red) policy is able to halve the number of accesses to regular wards and intensive care units in about one month. The effects of the intermediate (orange) policy are more volatile and seem to be only slightly more effective than the milder (yellow) policy. Elsevier B.V. 2021-09 2021-07-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8325386/ /pubmed/34373109 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.07.011 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Pelagatti, Matteo Maranzano, Paolo Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title | Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title_full | Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title_short | Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19 |
title_sort | assessing the effectiveness of the italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of covid-19 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8325386/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34373109 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.07.011 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT pelagattimatteo assessingtheeffectivenessoftheitalianriskzonespolicyduringthesecondwaveofcovid19 AT maranzanopaolo assessingtheeffectivenessoftheitalianriskzonespolicyduringthesecondwaveofcovid19 |