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Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Pleiades Publishing
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8328131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34366654 http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031 |
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author | Alpysbaeva, S. N. Shuneev, Sh. Zh. Zhanakova, N. N. Bakdolotov, A. A. |
author_facet | Alpysbaeva, S. N. Shuneev, Sh. Zh. Zhanakova, N. N. Bakdolotov, A. A. |
author_sort | Alpysbaeva, S. N. |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8328131 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Pleiades Publishing |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-83281312021-08-03 Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan Alpysbaeva, S. N. Shuneev, Sh. Zh. Zhanakova, N. N. Bakdolotov, A. A. Stud Russ Econ Dev Foreign Experience This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms. Pleiades Publishing 2021-08-02 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8328131/ /pubmed/34366654 http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031 Text en © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2021, ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 445–453. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2021.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2021. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Foreign Experience Alpysbaeva, S. N. Shuneev, Sh. Zh. Zhanakova, N. N. Bakdolotov, A. A. Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title | Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title_full | Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title_fullStr | Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title_full_unstemmed | Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title_short | Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan |
title_sort | potential gdp modeling and output gap estimation as a basis for countercyclical fiscal policy in kazakhstan |
topic | Foreign Experience |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8328131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34366654 http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031 |
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