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Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan

This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Alpysbaeva, S. N., Shuneev, Sh. Zh., Zhanakova, N. N., Bakdolotov, A. A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Pleiades Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8328131/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34366654
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031
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author Alpysbaeva, S. N.
Shuneev, Sh. Zh.
Zhanakova, N. N.
Bakdolotov, A. A.
author_facet Alpysbaeva, S. N.
Shuneev, Sh. Zh.
Zhanakova, N. N.
Bakdolotov, A. A.
author_sort Alpysbaeva, S. N.
collection PubMed
description This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms.
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spelling pubmed-83281312021-08-03 Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan Alpysbaeva, S. N. Shuneev, Sh. Zh. Zhanakova, N. N. Bakdolotov, A. A. Stud Russ Econ Dev Foreign Experience This paper identifies key risks of the public sector in Kazakhstan. Methods for modeling potential output and output gap in international research practice and their application in countercyclical fiscal policy are considered. The potential output of Kazakhstan is retrospectively analyzed using the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. Periods of the procyclical budgetary policy are identified. It is proposed to introduce a fiscal model of the structural budget balance, to target a zero output gap in the short term, and to increase the potential output through structural reforms. Pleiades Publishing 2021-08-02 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8328131/ /pubmed/34366654 http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031 Text en © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2021, ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 445–453. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2021.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2021. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Foreign Experience
Alpysbaeva, S. N.
Shuneev, Sh. Zh.
Zhanakova, N. N.
Bakdolotov, A. A.
Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title_full Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title_fullStr Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title_full_unstemmed Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title_short Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan
title_sort potential gdp modeling and output gap estimation as a basis for countercyclical fiscal policy in kazakhstan
topic Foreign Experience
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8328131/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34366654
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721040031
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