Clinicopathological models for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with early-stage lung adenocarcinoma: the application of machine learning algorithms

BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) status can be a critical decisive factor for clinical management of lung cancer. Accurately evaluating the risk of LNM during or after the surgery can be helpful for making clinical decisions. This study aims to incorporate clinicopathological characteristics to develop reliable machine learning (ML)-based models for predicting LNM in patients with early-stage lung adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 709 lung adenocarcinoma patients with tumor size ≤2 cm were enrolled for analysis and modeling by multiple ML algorithms. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used for evaluating model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness. Feature selection based on potential models was performed to identify most-contributed predictive factors. RESULTS: LNM occurred in 11.3% (80/709) of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. Most models reached high areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) >0.9. In the decision curve, all models performed better than the treat-all and treat-none lines. The random forest classifier (RFC) model, with a minimal number of five variables introduced (including carcinoembryonic antigen, solid component, micropapillary component, lymphovascular invasion and pleural invasion), was identified as the optimal model for predicting LNM, because of its excellent performance in both ROC and decision curves. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-efficient application of RFC model could precisely predict LNM during or after the operation of early-stage adenocarcinomas (sensitivity: 87.5%; specificity: 82.2%). Incorporating clinicopathological characteristics, it is feasible to predict LNM intraoperatively or postoperatively by ML algorithms.