Risk prediction nomogram for major morbidity related to primary resection for esophageal squamous cancer

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Postoperative major complications after esophageal cancer resection vary and may significantly impact long-term outcomes. This study aimed to build an individualized nomogram to predict post-esophagectomy major morbidity. METHODS: This retrospective study included 599 consecutive patients treated at a single center between January 2017 and April 2019. Of them, 420 and 179 were assigned to the model development and validation cohorts, respectively. Major morbidity predictors were identified using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated by validation. Regarding clinical usefulness, we examined the net benefit using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 64 years; 79% of the patients were male. The most common comorbidities were hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and stroke history. The 30-day postoperative major morbidity rate was 24%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, smoking history, coronary heart disease, dysphagia, body mass index, operation time, and tumor size were independent risk factors for surgery-associated major morbidity. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves of the development and validation groups were 0.775 (95% confidence interval, 0.721–0.829) and 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.709–0.874), respectively. In the validation cohort, the nomogram showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: Morbidity models and nomograms incorporating clinical and surgical data can be used to predict operative risk for esophagectomy and provide appropriate resources for the postoperative management of high-risk patients.