Trends in, projections of, and inequalities in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health service coverage in Vietnam 2000-2030: A Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels

BACKGROUND: To assess the reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) service coverage in Vietnam with trends in 2000−2014, projections and probability of achieving targets in 2030 at national and sub-national levels; and to analyze the socioeconomic, regional and urban-rural inequalities in RMNCH service indicators. METHODS: We used national population-based datasets of 44,624 households in Vietnam from 2000 to 2014. We applied Bayesian regression models to estimate the trends in and projections of RMNCH indicators and the probabilities of achieving the 2030 targets. Using the relative index, slope index, and concentration index of inequality, we examined the patterns and trends in RMNCH coverage inequality. FINDINGS: We projected that 9 out of 17 health service indicators (53%) would likely achieve the 2030 targets at the national level, including at least one and four ANC visits, BCG immunization, access to improved water and adequate sanitation, institutional delivery, skilled birth attendance, care-seeking for pneumonia, and ARI treatment. We observed very low coverages and zero chance of achieving the 2030 targets at national and sub-national levels in early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding, family planning needs satisfied, and oral rehydration therapy. The most deprived households living in rural areas and the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Central Highlands, and Mekong River Delta regions would not reach the 80% immunization coverage of DPT3, Polio3, Measles and full immunization. We found socioeconomic, regional, and urban-rural inequalities in all RMNCH indicators in 2014 and no change in inequalities over 15 years in the lowest-coverage indicators. INTERPRETATION: Vietnam has made substantial progress toward UHC. By improving the government's health system reform efforts, re-allocating resources focusing on people in the most impoverished rural regions, and restructuring and enhancing current health programs, Vietnam can achieve the UHC targets and other health-related SDGs. FUNDING: The authors did not receive any funds for conducting this study.