Altona Prognostic Index: A New Prognostic Index for ER-Positive and Her2-Negative Breast Cancer of No Special Type

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Breast cancer is the most common tumor-related cause of death in women in Europe and worldwide. The aim of our retrospective study, including 6654 women, was on the one hand to verify the validity of the worldwide known Nottingham prognostic index (NPI), and on the other hand to create a new model with even more prognostic validity. Our newly developed Altona prognostic index (API) shows significantly superior outcome in calculating progression free survival. In contrast to the NPI, the API considers characteristics such as subtypes of breast cancer, as this disease is heterogenous involving different entities, and patient’s age. Evaluating progression free survival in different subgroups, our study shows that both these prognostic indices should only be applied on a patient collective that is ≤70 years old with first primary, unifocal, unilateral breast cancer that is of no special type (NST), estrogen receptor-positive and Her2-negative to get valid prediction data. ABSTRACT: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease representing a number of different histopathologic and molecular types which should be taken into consideration if prognostic or predictive models are to be developed. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate the validity of the long-known Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) in a large retrospective study (n = 6654 women with a first primary unilateral and unifocal invasive breast cancer diagnosed and treated between April 1996 and October 2018; median follow-up time of breast cancer cases was 15.5 years [14.9–16.8]) from a single pathological institution. Furthermore, it was intended to develop an even superior risk stratification model considering an additional variable, namely the patient’s age at the time of diagnosis. Heterogeneity of these cases was addressed by focusing on estrogen receptor-positive as well as Her2-negative cases and taking the WHO-defined different tumor types into account. Calculating progression free survival Cox-regression and CART-analysis revealed significantly superior iAUC as well as concordance values in comparison to the NPI based stratification, leading to an alternative, namely the Altona prognostic index (API). The importance of the histopathological tumor type was corroborated by the fact that when calculated separately and in contrast to the most frequent so-called “No Special Type” (NST) carcinomas, neither NPI nor API could show valid prognostic stratification.