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Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading

The detection and management of diseases become quite complicated when pathogens contain asymptomatic phenotypes amongst their ranks, as evident during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Spreading of diseases has been studied extensively under the paradigm of susceptible–infected–recovered–deceased (SIRD...

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Autores principales: Sinha, Saptarshi, Nath, Deep, Roy, Soumen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer India 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8345261/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34393389
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41745-021-00247-z
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author Sinha, Saptarshi
Nath, Deep
Roy, Soumen
author_facet Sinha, Saptarshi
Nath, Deep
Roy, Soumen
author_sort Sinha, Saptarshi
collection PubMed
description The detection and management of diseases become quite complicated when pathogens contain asymptomatic phenotypes amongst their ranks, as evident during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Spreading of diseases has been studied extensively under the paradigm of susceptible–infected–recovered–deceased (SIRD) dynamics. Various game-theoretic approaches have also addressed disease spread, many of which consider [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and [Formula: see text] as strategies rather than as states. Remarkably, most studies from the above approaches do not account for the distinction between the symptomatic or asymptomatic aspect of the disease. It is well-known that precautionary measures like washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing significantly mitigate the spread of many contagious diseases. Herein, we consider the adoption of such precautions as strategies and treat [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and [Formula: see text] as states. We also attempt to capture the differences in epidemic spreading arising from symptomatic and asymptomatic diseases on various network topologies. Through extensive computer simulations, we examine that the cost of maintaining precautionary measures as well as the extent of mass testing in a population affects the final fraction of socially responsible individuals. We observe that the lack of mass testing could potentially lead to a pandemic in case of asymptomatic diseases. Network topology also seems to play an important role. We further observe that the final fraction of proactive individuals depends on the initial fraction of both infected as well as proactive individuals. Additionally, edge density can significantly influence the overall outcome. Our findings are in broad agreement with the lessons learnt from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-83452612021-08-09 Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading Sinha, Saptarshi Nath, Deep Roy, Soumen J Indian Inst Sci Review Article The detection and management of diseases become quite complicated when pathogens contain asymptomatic phenotypes amongst their ranks, as evident during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Spreading of diseases has been studied extensively under the paradigm of susceptible–infected–recovered–deceased (SIRD) dynamics. Various game-theoretic approaches have also addressed disease spread, many of which consider [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and [Formula: see text] as strategies rather than as states. Remarkably, most studies from the above approaches do not account for the distinction between the symptomatic or asymptomatic aspect of the disease. It is well-known that precautionary measures like washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing significantly mitigate the spread of many contagious diseases. Herein, we consider the adoption of such precautions as strategies and treat [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] , and [Formula: see text] as states. We also attempt to capture the differences in epidemic spreading arising from symptomatic and asymptomatic diseases on various network topologies. Through extensive computer simulations, we examine that the cost of maintaining precautionary measures as well as the extent of mass testing in a population affects the final fraction of socially responsible individuals. We observe that the lack of mass testing could potentially lead to a pandemic in case of asymptomatic diseases. Network topology also seems to play an important role. We further observe that the final fraction of proactive individuals depends on the initial fraction of both infected as well as proactive individuals. Additionally, edge density can significantly influence the overall outcome. Our findings are in broad agreement with the lessons learnt from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Springer India 2021-08-06 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8345261/ /pubmed/34393389 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41745-021-00247-z Text en © Indian Institute of Science 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Review Article
Sinha, Saptarshi
Nath, Deep
Roy, Soumen
Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title_full Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title_fullStr Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title_full_unstemmed Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title_short Mass Testing and Proactiveness Affect Epidemic Spreading
title_sort mass testing and proactiveness affect epidemic spreading
topic Review Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8345261/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34393389
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41745-021-00247-z
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