Nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response after transarterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: The pathologic responses to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are heterogeneous and result in disparate outcomes. The study aimed to establish and validate an effective nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response (PCR) after TACE. METHODS: We analyzed the clinicopathologic characteristics of HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy following TACE. Variables with statistical significance in a multivariate logistic regression analysis were incorporated in the nomogram. RESULTS: We detected PCR in 64 (50.4%) patients in the training cohort and 18 (37.5%) patients in the validation cohort. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression revealed that hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA load (P=0.031), α-fetoprotein (AFP, P=0.040), maximum tumor diameter (P=0.003), preoperative TACE session (P=0.026), and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) complete response (P=0.030) were identified as significant predictors of PCR. Incorporating these 5 factors, a nomogram was developed which attained concordance indexes of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72–0.87] and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.68–0.95) for predicting PCR in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The easy-to-use nomogram achieved a good post-TACE prediction of PCR in HCC patients. Using the model, patients who would benefit most from TACE could be identified, and the subsequent appropriate procedures could be guided accordingly.